Releasing the “Labor Market Future Forecasts 2035”

The number of employed persons is projected to increase from now to 2035, however, Japan will face a shortage of the labor force of 17.75 million hours per day (equivalent to 3.84 million workers), which is twice as serious as of 2023.

* Chuo University and Persol Research and Consulting Co., Ltd. held a joint press release on October 17, 2024. This article was reprinted from the press release.

Approximately 6 years have passed since the last “Labor Market Future Forecasts 2030” was released in 2018. The labor market saw an increase in various employed persons including women, seniors, and foreigners. Furthermore, the market is shifting drastically and various working styles such as remote work or side jobs are penetrating the market as a by-product of the pandemic. Taking such situations into account, the current “Labor Market Future Forecasts 2035” considered the labor shortage in terms of “man-hour” instead of “manpower,” and included not only “Japanese” as the target but also “foreigners,” to grasp more realistic labor demand.

■Outlook of labor market 2035
The number of employed persons of seniors, women, and foreigners is expected to increase from now to 2035 alongside the growth in their labor participation, however, the working hours per person declines, and the labor shortage intensifies.

■Key Takeaways
(Labor Market Forcast)
a) Japan will have a projected labor shortage of 17.75 million hours daily (equivalent to 3.84 million people) in 2035. This figure is equivalent to 3.84 million workers and the situation will be exacerbated 1.85 times than in 2023.

b) The number of employed persons (labor supply) is estimated to increase to 69,59 million in 2030, and 71,22 million in 2035, against 67.47 million in 2023. 

c) The labor force rate (labor participation rate) by gender and age is prospected to be on an upward trend holistically as of 2023 and beyond. Women's labor force appreciates significant gains with women in the 60s, in particular, expecting to rise by 20 points or more.

d) The number of foreign workers (labor supply) is expected to increase to 3.05 million in 2030, and 3.77 million in 2035 against 2.05 million as of 2023.

e) Annual working hours per employed person is estimated to decrease to 1,776 hours in 2030, and 1,687 hours in 2035 against 1,850 hours as of 2023.

f) By industries, “Service” faces the most severe labor shortage lacking 5.32 million hours daily, followed by the “Wholesale and Retail trade” lacking 3.54 million hours daily and the “Medical and Welfare” lacking 2.26 million hours daily.

g) By occupations, “Clerical worker” faces the most severe labor shortage lacking 3.65 million hours daily, followed by “Professional and engineering worker” lacking 3.02 million hours daily, “Service worker” lacking 2.66 million hours daily, and “Sales worker” lacking 2.45 million hours daily.

h) By prefectures, Tohoku region, in particular, is predicted to account for the high percentage of labor shortage.
※ A formula to calculate the labor shortage rate: (1- “labor supply” / “labor demand”) x 100 　　

 

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