経済研究所
【経済研】『ディスカッションペーパー』No.429 （李鋒研究員『Measuring Upward Mobility in China : Evidence from 1988-2018』）を発行しました
2026年8月6日に発行された『ディスカッションペーパー』No.429を学術リポジトリで全文公開いたしました。
論文名：Measuring Upward Mobility in China: Evidence from 1988-2018
執筆者：李 鋒 研究員（中央大学経済学部）
キーワード：Intergeneration Upward Mobility、Inclusive Growth、 Economic Opportunity、Great Gatsby Curve
要 旨：
Does economic growth inevitably create inclusive intergenerational upward mobility? Current indicators of intergenerational mobility focus on assessing changes in income status or the likelihood that offspring earn above their parents' earnings. However, limited consideration is given to the extent of economic growth benefits that have been distributed equally throughout society. This paper utilizes the welfare-based mobility framework developed by Ray and Genicot (2023) on nationally representative data of the China Household Income Project (CHIP) from the years 1988 to 2018. It employs a combination of welfare-based mobility, relative mobility, Chetty-style absolute mobility measures, AM-Berman benchmark absolute mobility measures, the Great Gatsby curve, and aggregate and detailed decomposition analysis to present a thorough examination of intergenerational mobility in China’s reform era. The findings suggest that the upward mobility increased significantly along with the fast-paced growth but declined systematically as greater value was attached to lower-income households. Such a trend implies that the growth was not evenly distributed among all income groups. However, relative mobility was consistently low, indicating that improvements in mobility occurred due to aggregate income growth, rather than structural improvements in opportunities for the next generations. Moreover, the decomposition analysis shows that structural factors contributed substantially to changes in mobility, and the hukou institutional reform became the dominant factor. These findings indicate that economic growth independently is inadequate for creating an inclusive intergenerational mobility process and reveal the need to measure the development process both on the basis of income growth and how growth increases opportunities for the next generations.
