Professor Stefan Hotes (School of Science and Engineering) and Colleagues: Disappearing Farmland, Expanding Forests and Cities—An Analysis of Land‑Use and Land‑Cover Changes in Japan Based on 158 International Peer‑Reviewed Studies—

A research group led by Juliano S. H. Houndonougbo^*1, a JSPS International Research Fellow, and Professor Stefan Hotes^*2 of the Faculty of Science and Engineering, Chuo University, conducted a quantitative analysis through a systematic review based on PRISMA guidelines^*2). The study examined 158 international peer-reviewed papers published over the past 30 years (1994–2024) concerning Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC)^*1) in Japan, focusing on its primary trajectories and driving factors.

The analysis revealed that LULCC in Japan is characterized by two dominant and contrasting trends: "Farmland Abandonment" and "Urbanization/Land-use Intensification." The most striking finding is the conversion of farmland into natural forest and secondary vegetation. This shift is occurring at an annual rate of 684 km², progressing at a markedly faster rate—approximately eight times faster than the reverse process (conversion of forest to farmland). These results are driven and amplified by economic and demographic factors, specifically the aging population and depopulation of rural areas.

Furthermore, the conversion of farmland to urban areas continues at a rate of 78.5 km² per year, confirming that pressure for urban and infrastructure development remains high, particularly in coastal and peri-urban regions.

While these changes were primarily driven by economic and demographic factors, the study also demonstrated that reforestation trends were strongly influenced by policy and institutional factors, with post-war national afforestation policies playing a significant role.

For future research, the group emphasizes an urgent need to address methodological and technical challenges by introducing advanced spatial modeling approaches, such as agent‑based models and machine‑learning techniques, to better predict and explain future land‑use changes.

The results of this study were published online in the international academic journal Land on 11 March, 2026. This research was produced through a collaborative project based on a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the Faculty of Science and Engineering, Chuo University and the Faculty of Agronomic Sciences at the University of Abomey‑Calavi^*3) in the Republic of Benin.

*1: Juliano S. H. Houndonougbo: Currently affiliated with the University of Abomey-Calavi. He was a Visiting Researcher at Chuo University from 23 November, 2023, to 22 January, 2026, through the JSPS (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science) Postdoctoral Fellowship for Research in Japan. His areas of expertise include natural resource management and applied ecology.

*2: Faculty of Science and Engineering, Chuo University: Reorganized in April 2026 as the School of Science and Engineering, Chuo University, comprising the Faculty of Fundamental Science and Engineering, the Faculty of Science, Engineering, and Society, and the Faculty of Advanced Science and Engineering.

Journal: Land (MDPI)
Title: Three Decades of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Japan (1994–2024): A Systematic Literature Review of Trajectories, Drivers, and Sustainability Implications
Authors: Juliano S. H. Houndonougbo, Stefan Hotes,* Florent Noulèkoun, Sylvanus Mensah, Achille E. Assogbadjo
DOI: 10.3390/land15030448

*1) Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) Land Use refers to how humans utilize land, focusing on human purposes and activities such as agriculture, residential areas, and industrial zones. Land cover describes what physically covers the Earth’s surface, such as forests, grasslands, water bodies, and built‑up surfaces including concrete, emphasizing biophysical and ecological characteristics. LULCC refers to changes in land use and land cover over time.

*2) PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis) Guidelines The PRISMA guidelines are internationally recognized reporting standards designed to improve the quality and transparency of reporting in systematic reviews (SRs) and meta‑analyses (MAs). With subsequent advances in systematic review methodology and terminology, the guidelines were updated as PRISMA 2020, providing revised reporting guidance that reflects methodological progress in how studies are identified, selected, appraised, and synthesized. For the Japanese translation and detailed explanation of PRISMA 2020, please refer to the following source: Hiroharu Kamioka, Yoshihiro Kaneko, Kiichiro Tsutani, Takeo Nakayama, Hideki Origasa, “The PRISMA 2020 Statement: An Updated Guideline for Reporting Systematic Reviews (Japanese Translation),” Japanese Pharmacology & Therapeutics (Life Science Publishing), Vol. 49, No. 6, pp. 831–842 (2021).
https://www.lifescience.co.jp/yk/jpt_online/PRISMA.html
https://www.lifescience.co.jp/yk/jpt_online/prisma/j20210831.pdf

*3) University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC) Founded on 21 August, 1970, in the Republic of Benin as the University of Dahomey, it was renamed the University of Benin in 1975 before adopting its current name in 2001. UAC’s vision is to serve as a center of academic excellence that promotes access to skills, fosters entrepreneurship and innovation, and acts as a driving force for development, recognized at both regional and international levels for its role in human resource development, quality of education, and the relevance of its research. The university is composed of seven university centers, each comprising multiple faculties, schools, research institutes, and academic chairs. Chuo University signed an MOU with the Embassy of the Republic of Benin in Japan in September 2021, and its Faculty of Science and Engineering established an inter-institutional agreement with UAC’s Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, Faculty of Engineering Sciences, and National Water Institute in July 2020. In May 2024, the two institutions co-hosted the international workshop "Collaboration in education and research for sustainable development between Japan and Benin."

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Professor Stefan Hotes
School of Science and Engineering, Chuo University
(Department of Integrated Sciences and Engineering for Sustainable Societies, Faculty of Science, Engineering, and Society)
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